7th April 2026
EIDE Briefings
-End of the War and the Stock Market with the weakening inflationary pressure
As I wrote previously, the war in Iran should be winding down by the end of May, when the driving season begins.
・Inflationary pressures
Although the rise in the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) in April was significant, it is likely to be reflected in the PPI and CPI over the next two or three months and then stabilise.
(Having experienced two oil crises, developed nations have become less vulnerable to energy shocks originating in the Middle East, partly due to the formation of the IEA.)
・Real Economic Conditions
As indicated by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the K-shaped economy, which has been propped up by the wealthy, is unlikely to withstand the pull of gravity.
・Fed Policy
With economic conditions verging on stagflation, the Fed is unlikely to take significant action for the time being.
・Share Prices
Share prices are rising even at current high interest rates.
It is difficult to envisage a new crisis emerging in the near term.
The Russell 2000, often seen as the ‘canary in the coal mine’, is also on an upward trend, and US equities are likely to continue their mild rise, albeit with some correction.
Japanese equities, whilst the NT ratio is at record levels, are likely to continue rising, albeit at a slower pace and with a bias towards the TOPIX.
